Hollywood Goes Denim, restaurants reporting and Gov't Data Breakdown
September 16, 2025
1. Hollywood Goes Denim
Last week in a Members only Portfolio+ video, I broke down the nuts and bolts of the financials behind the denim trade. I drew myself in the classic Canadian Tuxedo to illustrate the point. Sunday at the Emmy Awards, host Nate Bargatze appeared in what he referred to as a "Blue Jean Tuxedo" to introduce Sydney Sweeney.
To me, it sounded like a good reason to continue looking for long-side opportunities trading names in the Macke Denim Index.
2. Are folks still going out to eat? Cracker Barrel tonight, Darden Thursday
Cracker Barrel and Darden are set to report this week and the set-up isn't great for either. Not only are restaurants as a group starting to roll-over a bit but Cracker Barrel just spent 6 months rolling out "Inclusive" store redesigns when quickly reversing the decision in the face of public pressure.
CRBL reports Wednesday. Darden is your best "tell" for consumers dining less. Cracker Barrel is your tell for "can stocks rally on bad news if they are down far enough?"
3. BREAKING: Retail Sales... People are still shopping!
Government retail sales just came in slightly hotter than expected. Some of this might be inflation. Tariff-plagued sporting goods and apparel were both strong. Then again, so were grocery sales, where tariffs are less of a factor.
Bottom line: Nothing here to change my relatively sanguine view on the consumer into the holidays.
Coming Soon to the Portfolio+: Options Trades & More
In the last 6 months we've beaten the market, found some good trades and crushed on America's newfound love of denim.
I'm excited to pre-announce (details to come) that members will soon be able to ride along with me and All Star Options Strategist Sean McLaughlin as we up the ante with weekly trade ideas.
Stay tuned for more details and stay long, my friends.
